Risk of ruin & bankroll
Risk of ruin is the probability that ordinary variance wipes out your bankroll before your skill edge ever cashes in. A bigger win rate and a bigger bankroll both push that probability down.
What risk of ruin actually is
Risk of ruin is the probability that a normal losing streak drains your entire bankroll before your long-term edge ever gets to pay off. Even a winning player goes broke sometimes if the bankroll is too thin to survive variance.
Two levers control the risk
Only two things move risk of ruin: your win rate (edge) and the size of your bankroll relative to your stakes. A bigger edge means fewer and shallower downswings; a bigger bankroll means you can absorb the downswings that still happen.
Variance simulator
A winning player still has losing months. Set your win rate and how swingy your game is, and watch the range of results luck can hand you.
- Expected result
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- 95% of results land in
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- Chance you're in profit
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- Risk of ruin
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Assumes results are normally distributed with a fixed win rate — a good model over tens of thousands of hands. Real edges drift, and short samples swing far more, so treat the bands as a guide, not a guarantee.
Cash game bankroll guidelines
For online cash, a common rule is 20 to 30 buy-ins for your stake, and 40 to 50+ if you want a low chance of moving down. Live cash plays softer and slower, so 15 to 20 buy-ins is often workable. A buy-in is 100 big blinds.
Tournament bankroll guidelines
Tournaments have far higher variance because most of the field cashes for nothing and the payouts are top-heavy. Plan for 100+ buy-ins for regular MTTs, and even more for large-field or high-variance formats. The bigger the field, the deeper the swings.
- Risk of ruin is the chance variance busts you before your edge pays off.
- Only two levers move it: your win rate and your bankroll relative to stakes.
- Rough guides: 20-30+ buy-ins for online cash, 100+ for regular tournaments.
- Set your bankroll rules in advance and move down before the downswing forces you to.
Test yourself
Answer them all — 16/20 to pass. Every answer gets an explanation.
What does "risk of ruin" measure?
Risk of ruin is the probability variance busts your bankroll before your long-term edge is realized.
Which two factors most directly control risk of ruin?
Only your edge (win rate) and your bankroll relative to stakes move risk of ruin.
All else equal, doubling your bankroll does what to risk of ruin?
A larger bankroll absorbs more variance, so risk of ruin drops substantially.
For a true break-even player, risk of ruin over the long run is:
With no edge, variance alone will eventually bust any finite bankroll.
A standard cash-game "buy-in" is usually how many big blinds?
A full buy-in at most cash tables is 100 big blinds.
A commonly cited online cash bankroll is:
Around 20 to 30 buy-ins is a common baseline for online cash games.
Why do tournaments require more buy-ins than cash games?
Most of the field wins nothing and prizes concentrate at the top, creating large swings.
A reasonable bankroll for regular MTTs is roughly:
Tournament variance is high, so 100 or more buy-ins is a common guideline.
If your bankroll drops below your threshold for a stake, the disciplined move is to:
Dropping stakes preserves the roll and keeps risk of ruin low.
How does a higher win rate affect risk of ruin?
A bigger edge shortens and shallows downswings, cutting risk of ruin sharply.
Pocket aces are about what to win preflop versus a single random hand?
AA wins roughly 85% heads-up against a random hand, so it still loses sometimes.
Live cash games are often bankrolled more loosely because:
Softer opponents and fewer hands per hour lower hourly variance, so fewer buy-ins can suffice.
Bankroll management should be decided:
Rules set in advance are what keep you from ruin during a bad run.
Which situation has the LOWEST risk of ruin?
Combining a strong win rate with a large bankroll minimizes risk of ruin.
A player with a small edge but very deep bankroll will:
A real edge plus a deep roll keeps risk of ruin small, though never truly zero in the short run.
Variance in poker refers to:
Variance is the short-term spread of outcomes around long-run expectation.
Set-mining with a pocket pair misses the flop set about how often?
You flop a set roughly 1 in 8.5, so you miss the vast majority of the time.
Which is NOT a way to reduce risk of ruin?
Playing higher with the same bankroll increases risk of ruin, it does not reduce it.
Why can a winning player still go broke?
Even with a real edge, an underfunded roll may not survive the swings variance produces.
The safest mindset toward bankroll is that it is:
The bankroll exists to absorb downswings so your edge can play out over time.
Review — all 20 questions & answers tap to expand
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What does "risk of ruin" measure?
Answer The chance you go broke before your edge pays off
Risk of ruin is the probability variance busts your bankroll before your long-term edge is realized.
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Which two factors most directly control risk of ruin?
Answer Win rate and bankroll size
Only your edge (win rate) and your bankroll relative to stakes move risk of ruin.
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All else equal, doubling your bankroll does what to risk of ruin?
Answer Lowers it sharply
A larger bankroll absorbs more variance, so risk of ruin drops substantially.
-
For a true break-even player, risk of ruin over the long run is:
Answer Effectively 100% eventually
With no edge, variance alone will eventually bust any finite bankroll.
-
A standard cash-game "buy-in" is usually how many big blinds?
Answer 100 big blinds
A full buy-in at most cash tables is 100 big blinds.
-
A commonly cited online cash bankroll is:
Answer 20 to 30 buy-ins
Around 20 to 30 buy-ins is a common baseline for online cash games.
-
Why do tournaments require more buy-ins than cash games?
Answer Higher variance from top-heavy payouts and many non-cashes
Most of the field wins nothing and prizes concentrate at the top, creating large swings.
-
A reasonable bankroll for regular MTTs is roughly:
Answer 100+ buy-ins
Tournament variance is high, so 100 or more buy-ins is a common guideline.
-
If your bankroll drops below your threshold for a stake, the disciplined move is to:
Answer Move down in stakes
Dropping stakes preserves the roll and keeps risk of ruin low.
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How does a higher win rate affect risk of ruin?
Answer It lowers it, often more powerfully than adding bankroll
A bigger edge shortens and shallows downswings, cutting risk of ruin sharply.
-
Pocket aces are about what to win preflop versus a single random hand?
Answer About 85%
AA wins roughly 85% heads-up against a random hand, so it still loses sometimes.
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Live cash games are often bankrolled more loosely because:
Answer Play tends to be softer and hands come slower, reducing variance per hour
Softer opponents and fewer hands per hour lower hourly variance, so fewer buy-ins can suffice.
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Bankroll management should be decided:
Answer Before the downswing hits
Rules set in advance are what keep you from ruin during a bad run.
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Which situation has the LOWEST risk of ruin?
Answer Big edge and deep bankroll
Combining a strong win rate with a large bankroll minimizes risk of ruin.
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A player with a small edge but very deep bankroll will:
Answer Have low but nonzero risk of ruin
A real edge plus a deep roll keeps risk of ruin small, though never truly zero in the short run.
-
Variance in poker refers to:
Answer The natural swing of results around your expected win rate
Variance is the short-term spread of outcomes around long-run expectation.
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Set-mining with a pocket pair misses the flop set about how often?
Answer About 7 out of 8 times
You flop a set roughly 1 in 8.5, so you miss the vast majority of the time.
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Which is NOT a way to reduce risk of ruin?
Answer Playing higher stakes with the same roll
Playing higher with the same bankroll increases risk of ruin, it does not reduce it.
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Why can a winning player still go broke?
Answer A normal downswing can outlast a thin bankroll
Even with a real edge, an underfunded roll may not survive the swings variance produces.
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The safest mindset toward bankroll is that it is:
Answer A cushion sized to survive variance, not a target to gamble in one shot
The bankroll exists to absorb downswings so your edge can play out over time.